Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 2.188135 2.309444 2.440360 2.593394 2.769056 2.966555 3.208660
2025-06-01 2.039772 2.192264 2.363870 2.574506 2.830948 3.140185 3.553867
2025-06-08 1.934585 2.104941 2.302283 2.553209 2.872687 3.280419 3.869389
2025-06-15 1.874913 2.061999 2.284354 2.576373 2.964433 3.488926 4.312936
2025-06-22 1.777988 1.966268 2.193064 2.496123 2.908515 3.484695 4.438116
2025-06-29 1.728545 1.924572 2.164635 2.492488 2.952469 3.624313 4.821124
2025-07-06 1.664317 1.860608 2.103415 2.439494 2.920202 3.642989 4.998118
2025-07-13 1.643286 1.849252 2.108227 2.474782 3.016620 3.874289 5.646447
2025-07-20 1.636579 1.855148 2.135028 2.541394 3.165875 4.219746 6.712417
2025-07-27 1.607303 1.830147 2.118757 2.544630 3.215936 4.399892 7.507798
2025-08-03 1.580702 1.807301 2.103877 2.548216 3.265998 4.589217 8.490540
2025-08-10 1.533860 1.755986 2.047660 2.486749 3.201608 4.538691 8.646037
2025-08-17 1.504541 1.728236 2.024519 2.476274 3.227452 4.690169 9.772330
2025-08-24 1.475796 1.700134 1.999502 2.461076 3.243160 4.823723 11.067839
2025-08-31 1.447980 1.672288 1.973570 2.442677 3.251020 4.941798 12.587566
2025-09-07 1.434402 1.663095 1.973412 2.464155 3.333099 5.259165 16.773970
2025-09-14 1.393243 1.615083 1.915957 2.391422 3.232233 5.090705 16.030444
2025-09-21 1.374872 1.597829 1.902229 2.388214 3.263487 5.278504 20.546702
2025-09-28 1.344210 1.562896 1.861819 2.339934 3.203883 5.207854 21.247857
2025-10-05 1.338312 1.561924 1.870636 2.372154 3.304598 5.617814 43.605488
2025-10-12 1.340393 1.571965 1.895808 2.432809 3.470681 6.312618 NaN
2025-10-19 1.326833 1.559634 1.887194 2.435757 3.516523 6.635508 NaN
2025-10-26 1.313984 1.547944 1.879085 2.439019 3.563420 6.991323 NaN